Bali Low-carb Diet Plan

Much of the outcome of the Bali climate change conference is becoming clear – regardless of the theatrics, scaremongering and grandstanding – both in terms of the process (the Bali roadmap) over the next two years preceding the ratification of a new treaty prior to 2012 and the broad content.

There will a closing of the gap over emission reduction targets between those already industrialised countries (including the US) and countries such as China and India which have experienced rapid economic growth and energy consumption in the past two decades. Quality air and ambient temperatures are global public goods: comparing past energy use by country is a futile exercise – what counts is future carbon consumption. Most of the existing political problems in the current discussions stem from a green economic nationalism; yet the growth of emerging economies is due in large part from increased openness, trade and technological transfers – precisely the elements that will contribute most to emission reductions. Countries such as China, India and Brazil do recognise that they need to commit domestic investment in emission cuts in parallel to international efforts to correct global climate market failures.

Many other “developing” or poor countries claim that accepting emissions constraints will hinder economic growth. But these countries have a dismal record on introducing even the most basic governance reforms that are a prerequisite for economic growth and progress. Climate change will necessitate more openness and transparency than many of their leaders would like: but without stepping up their own reform programmes additional financial and technical assistance transfers to help them adapt to the consequences of climate change are unlikely to have much impact.