Jeffersonian climate change strategy

The 2008 presidential campaign is the most open race for years not least because neither the sitting president nor vice president is seeking nomination. The primaries are an anomaly, vividly portrayed in the novel Primary Colors: A Novel of Politics (1996). The Iowa caucuses are trenchantly dissected by Christopher Hitchens as being inherently corrupt and anti-democratic – characterised by the absence of secret ballots and a profusion of ‘inducements’:

as small and landlocked and white and rural as Iowa is, I would be happy to give an opening bid in our electoral process to its warm and generous and serious people. But this is not what the caucus racket actually does. What it does is give the whip hand to the moneyed political professionals, to the full-time party hacks and manipulators…

If as seems likely the candidates wish to avoid substantial policy debates – after all none have come this far by being radical, and like poker players the candidates often adjust their proposals to match their opponents latest bids – then the campaign will come down to “character”. The big ticket in the campaign now is to be seen as the “change candidate”. This can mean debunking a candidate’s experience, creating the perception that this asset is a liability, or pushing visions for change and creating the perception that a realignment is underway in American politics. What does seem a little more certain is that Republicans and Democrats alike are embarrassed by the incompetence of their own government.

And the US has been getting a bad press on climate change. This has been comforting for the Bush White House – and incidentally convenient for the European tribes since it deflects attention from the conspicuous lack of impact of the Kyoto agreement, the absence of concrete national programmes, and the rise in carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions. But it ignores or misunderstands the broader sweep of US public opinion, and probable future US leadership in global environmental policy since the serious candidates are signed up members for climate change reform.